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Thursday, July 2nd, 2009...8:22 am

The Quantum Leap of Quantum Computing

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Taipei, Taiwan

  • Economists throw darts at random jobless predictions,
  • Spintronic-based memristors and other futuristic sounding gadgets,
  • Totally tubular birthday wishes for the Walkman and plenty more…

Joel Bowman, reporting from Taipei, Taiwan…

Happy birthday Walkman!

That’s right, Rude groovers, Sony’s iconic Walkman device just celebrated its 30th birthday. Your editor, not yet as old as the revolutionizing gadget itself, still remembers the unbridled freedom of cruising down to the school bus stop with INXS pumping in his ears.

We imagined the same feeling must be the primary motivation for grownups buying motorcycles. It had the power to immediately transform any schoolyard geek to a schoolyard geek…with a Walkman. For that alone the thing deserves repeated cheers.

So, what better way to cut loose with some tubular birthday celebrations than to ask a teen of today to review the old school classic? Sony gave the task to Scott Campbell, a 13-year old who co-edits his own website (naturally).

A recent story in the San Francisco Chronicle provides some details:

“My dad had told me it was the iPod of its day,” Campbell wrote [on his website]. “He had told me it was big, but I hadn’t realized he meant that big. It was the size of a small book.”

“Sure enough, people on the street noticed the antique clinging from his belt with amusement and friends on his school bus were quick to come up with some witty remark. Campbell went on to criticize the portable cassette player’s size, appearance, functionality and the ‘hissy backtrack and odd warbly noises.’

“Even when he discovered the cassette had more music on the other side (it took him three days), Campbell was still disappointed it could only hold a small fraction of what an iPod can.

“‘Did my dad … really ever think this was a credible piece of technology?’”

There’s little doubt that, over the long haul, advances in technology have been greatly beneficial to (and profitable for) our species. But with our noses in our BlackBerries and our iPod earbuds crowding out the world, we sometimes forget just how quickly things are moving.

In today’s column, our resident technology enthusiast, Patrick Cox, invites readers to learn a little more about what’s going on with the next generation of computers. Think of them as iPods…COMBINED with Walkmans…only better! Details below…

— Breakthrough Technology Alert —

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And You’re About to Become Ultra-Wealthy

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By then, you could be among the ultra-wealthy.

Because you took decisive action in early 2009.

A chance like this pops up once every few lifetimes.

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———————————-

The Quantum Leap of Quantum Computing
By Patrick Cox

The electronics and computing industries are getting primed for a massive transformation in the years ahead. Quantum technologies that were only theories in scientific journals just a few years ago are being prototyped in labs now. These new components will change the way we live forever. They will also create transformational profit opportunities.

If you missed the chance to buy into the computer industry when it was young, this is a second shot…

Currently, the mainstream electronics industry processes data by moving bunches of electrons about in huge batches. Think of the components in your PC as electrical plumbing. Data are usually stored as batches of electrons. Imagine your computer’s hard drive as a bunch of very small buckets, some full of water, some not. This will change.

Improved materials technologies from emerging nanosciences are allowing us to replace batches of electrons with the smallest individual unit: the electron. As a result, computers will work at far higher speeds. Additionally, far less electricity will be required to do the same amount of work.

Much of this exciting news is being ignored by the market. It’s an unfortunate truth that investors often lose sight of long-term opportunities to create wealth because they get distracted by the short-term noise and news in the markets. When it comes to big transformational technologies, don’t worry about timing. The returns that disruptive technologies yield justify getting in early.

Quantum Superposition

One important quantum effect that will be used in future generations of computer technology is “quantum superposition.” In a nutshell, this means that a quantum particle can exist in multiple states and everything in between at the same time. This is because a quantum particle, such as an electron, behaves as both a particle and a wave.

Have you heard of the particle wave theory? In practical terms, it means that bizarre and counterintuitive effects occur on very small scales, and they can be harnessed.

This “quantum superposition” effect will, for example, utterly transform how we do “computer math.” Currently, nearly everything done by computers is done in binary. The smallest piece of information a computer handles, the bit, is either one or zero. A quantum computer, though, would be able to store and work with number systems other than binary.

This means computers would become exponentially more powerful because each “quantum bit” (qubit) could store a much greater range of numbers than the two that binary math restricts us to. Imagine a laptop with the computing power of the world’s 10 most powerful supercomputers. Then you begin to grasp the potential of quantum computing.

Decoding Quantum Encryption

Quantum computing also offers the means of making our communications and business transactions far more secure than they are today. Quantum cryptography exploits several remarkable effects of “quantum entanglement.” One is the ability to generate pairs of utterly unique and unbreakable keys. Basically, two random but identical particle keys can be created using entanglement. Since reading a quantum particle alters it, any effort to eavesdrop on communication is detected and that communication is either disrupted or ended.

Using this technology, we can create completely secure communications networks. Recently, Toshiba’s R&D labs announced the successful testing of quantum cryptography over fiber-optic networks. Austrians were able to send entangled photons between two Spanish islands nearly 90 miles apart.

Spintronics

One of the likeliest quantum technologies to go mainstream is the field of spintronics. This is the exploitation of different electron states. The only property of the electron that we use in electronics now is charge. Electrons, however, have another property called “spin.” Because we can change and read this spin, it can be used to compute. Already, the tech giants are investing in this technology. And there’s a reason.

I’ve written a lot about HP’s work on memristor technology. Memristors are going to provide the next great leap in computer technology. HP has been making rapid and well publicized advances. It could, in fact, have product on the market next year. This initially concerned me because HP is too big to get us anything close to a memristor pure play.

Fortunately, memristors can be built using techniques other than HP’s. My associate Ray Blanco has been poring through patents and tech journals. What he’s found is enormously exciting.

Basically, a number of other groups have made similar memristor advances using different technologies. One is based on spintronics. Seagate Technology scientists believe, in fact, that spintronic-based memristors would be more efficient and customizable than the ion-based tech debuted by HP’s labs. There are other players here, and we’ll tell you about them in the future.

The big question now, however, is not which of these technologies will emerge as the best solution. The question we’re looking at today is who will build these new components. Who, in effect, will be the Intel of the future?

Joel’s Note: Having been in and around the business for his whole career, Patrick’s got connections in just about every breakthrough technology field in town. When anything big is coming down the pipes, in other words, Patrick is in early. If technology is your thing and you want to take a look at his latest report, please feel free to do so here.

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—————————————–

[Rude Endnote: First, the noise from yesterday: Stocks rose a bit. The dollar dipped a smidge. Gold rallied a tad.

That’s as specific as were going to get today, lest we go cross-eyed trying to decipher the data deluge spewing from the Street and every government orifice, back office and bureau. In the end, most of it is useless dribble anyway.

Take today’s much-anticipated jobs report, for instance. (It should be out by the time you receive this edition of your Rude.) A team of economists surveyed by Bloomberg reckons 365,000 workers lost their positions over the month of June. Another report, cited by MarketWatch, puts the figure at 325,000. That’s quite a difference. And then, reading a bit further, one discovers that the range of estimates among Bloomberg’s 79 gurus was 350,000 (between 150,000 and 500,000). Throw enough darts at the board and you’re bound to get a bulls eye eventually, right?

The only piece of meaningful jobless data – namely, the actual number – is not even out yet and already we have forecasters with their slide rules and spectacles playing guess the pink slips in the jar.

Events from here usually, and somewhat comically, unfold as follows…

First, the actual number will come in above or below the median estimate of Team Econmica. One lucky necktie will be closer than his contemporaries and, until next month, he will be the envy of them all. They will study his every move, including what he has for breakfast and other such non-related events, trying to figure out how he “did it.” Next, the mainstream press will grab the number and affix a catchy sound bite to it, something like “gaining momentum” or “temporarily faltering.” Then, a stylishly dressed woman or an avuncular man with slightly graying hair will read the sound bite from a teleprompter, flashing a bleached smile and sounding as intelligent as possible. They might even invite the closest-to-the-pin member of Team Economica in so he/she can point to some squiggly lines on a chart. Finally, investors around the country will rush to buy the “less-bad” results or sell the “more-bad” ones.

It’s a farce, in other words. Very few people will stand two feet back from the chart to see where the line started. Figures will be compared only to last month. Steadying rates of decline will be praised, as if bleeding to death more slowly is the same as playing a game of golf or going for a walk on the beach.

It’s not.

Got something to ad? Write to us below.

We’ll be back with more Rude scribbles tomorrow.

Until then…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

The Rude Awakening
aussiejoel@the-rude-awakening.com

P.S. Did you catch that number above, 15? That’s how many copies of Byron’s “Laughing Gold” report we’ve got left. Even if they sell at the rate they’ve been selling at over the past few weeks (that rate typically picks up right before deadlines) these reports will be gone by lunchtime today.

AND…unlike U.S. dollars, we can’t print more of them. This offer is strictly limited to first edition only. If you want in, click here. If not, this will probably be the last time you have to hear about it.

https://www.web-purchases.com/ESILaughedGold/EESIK612/landing.html

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